i wrote on my bold predictions about silicon valley’s unemployment forecast a while ago, concluding that
next question is, what’s the peak? my hypothesis is that it’d be less than the 9.1% of 2003. the 2003 cycle was the dotcom bubble, pinching the Valley harder than the rest of the industries and regions. since 2008 is more organic meltdown, and the volume of labor force hasn’t risen as much as it did last time (see chart below), the unemployment rate might top out at 8.25-8.5%.
and when would the good times roll again? based on the same theory of accelerated swings above, i’d say, a year from recovery that puts us into Oct-Dec 2010. apple (or may be google, facebook, whoever) probably would have a killer product for christmas, lifting us to a nice Jan 2011.
i am already way off on the peak unemployment, and we aren’t even done yet. a wall street journal report on silicon valley unemployment shows a bleak picture. here’s the money chart.
the theory of accelerated swings seems to be coming true, and the peaks are getting higher. so my guess is that when it does get better, it will get better quickly. but it still might be a few months before it starts to get better.
Silicon Valley Unemployment Update